A machine-learning-based method to predict adverse events in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and severely reduced ejection fractions

Abstract

Objective: Patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and severely reduced left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs) are at very high risks of experiencing adverse cardiac events. A machine learning (ML) method could enable more effective risk stratification for these high-risk patients by incorporating various types of data. The aim of this study was to build an ML model to predict adverse events including all-cause deaths and heart transplantation in DCM patients with severely impaired LV systolic function. Methods: One hundred and eighteen patients with DCM and severely reduced LVEFs (<35%) were included. The baseline clinical characteristics, laboratory data, electrocardiographic, and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) features were collected. Various feature selection processes and classifiers were performed to select an ML model with the best performance. The predictive performance of tested ML models was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve using 10-fold cross-validation. Results: Twelve patients died, and 17 patients underwent heart transplantation during the median follow-up of 508 days. The ML model included systolic blood pressure, left ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volume indices, and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) extents on CMR imaging, and a support vector machine was selected as a classifier. The model showed excellent performance in predicting adverse events in DCM patients with severely reduced LVEF (the AUC and accuracy values were 0.873 and 0.763, respectively). Conclusions: This ML technique could effectively predict adverse events in DCM patients with severely reduced LVEF. Advances in knowledge: The ML method has superior ability in risk stratification in severe DCM patients.