The development of a predictive risk model on post-ablation hemobilia: a multicenter matched case–control study

Abstract

Objective:This study aimed to develop a predictive risk model for post-ablation hemobilia.Methods:This was a retrospective, multicenter, matched case–control study. The case group comprised patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who developed post-ablation hemobilia (n = 21); the control group (n = 63) comprised patients with hepatocellular carcinoma but no post-ablation hemobilia; for each case, we included three controls matched for age, sex, platelet count, year of ablation therapy, and center. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for hemobilia. A risk score model was developed based on adjusted odds ratios (ORs).Results:The independent risk factors for occurrence of post-ablation hemobilia were maximum tumor diameter >47 mm [OR = 5.983, 95% CI (1.134–31.551)] and minimum distance from the applicator to the portal trunk ≤8 mm [OR = 4.821, 95% CI (1.225–18.975)]. The risk model was developed using the adjusted ORs; thus a score of 6 was assigned to the former and a score of 5 for the latter. The area under the curve of this risk model was 0.76. Significant hemodynamic instability and inaccurate embolization might increase the risk of recurrence of hemobilia.Conclusion:Tumor size >47 mm and distance of the applicator from the portal trunk ≤8 mm are independent risk factors for hemobilia. A predictive risk model for post-ablation hemobilia was developed using these risk factors.Advances in knowledge:This is the first study that developed a risk score model of post-ablation hemobilia. Risk factors of the recurrence of post-ablation hemobilia were also been identified.