Spatial Distribution of the Seismicity Parameters and Maximum Magnitude Value of Muş Province and its Vicinity

Abstract

In the study, the seismicity parameters, spatial distribution of seismicity parameters and maximum magnitude value were determined in a circular area with a 200 km radius, which is centered in Mus (38.73ºN Latitude ve 41.49ºE Longitude). For this purpose, the earthquakes of magnitude M≥3.0 were used, which were taken from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute’s earthquake catalog, in the period time between 1900-2020. The study area was divided into 285 subregions as 0.25°Nx0.25°E r=0.25 for the determination of seismicity parameters and mapping. For each subregion, which could be calculated, the coefficient “b” in the Gutenberg-Richter was calculated using the maximum likelihood method, seismicity parameters were calculated according to Poisson Method rules. As a result of the calculation, a relatively low value of “b” changing in the range of 0.60≤b≤0.97, was seen. It was determined that the recurrence periods of earthquakes with magnitude values of Mw=5.5 ve Mw=6.0 changing in the range of 10≤Tr≤290 and 25≤Tr≤775, respectively. For the same magnitude values, the average hazard ratio values were calculated as 0,80 and 0.74, respectively in 50 and 100 year time periods. It was determined that the range of 7.2≤mmax≤7.3 was possible-reliable and Kijko-Sellevol-Bayes theory was more suitable, as a result of the evaluations in order to determine the “mmax” value for the whole study region.