Analysis of prognostic factors and construction of prognostic models for invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast

Abstract

Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) account for most cases of breast cancer. However, there is ongoing debate about any potential variations in overall survival (OS) between ILC and IDC. This study aimed to compare survival between IDC and ILC, identify prognostic factors for ILC patients, and construct a nomogram for predicting OS rates. This retrospective cohort analysis utilized data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Cancer Database. Patients diagnosed with ILC and IDC between 2000 and 2019 were enrolled. To minimize baseline differences in clinicopathological characteristics and survival outcomes, a propensity score matching (PSM) method was used. Data from the multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to construct a predictive nomogram for OS at 1, 3, and 5 years, incorporating all independent prognostic factors. Following the PSM procedure, patients with ILC exhibited a better prognosis compared to those with IDC. TNM stage, age >70, radiotherapy, surgery, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HR-/HER2+) subtype were identified as independent factors for OS in ILC patients. Surgery and radiotherapy effectively reduced the risk of death, while chemotherapy did not demonstrate the same benefit. This model could support clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of ILC for decision-making and patient counseling.