The Impact of Flood Risk on the Activity of the Residential Land Market in a Polish Cultural Heritage Town

Abstract

The article attempts to determine the effect of perceived flood risk, based on identified flood hazard zones, on the level of activity in the market of land property designated for housing developments in the historical town of Sandomierz, Poland. The study employed graphical, analytical, quantitative methods, and spatial analyses with GIS tools. The proposed methodology, involving spatial interpolation of the phenomenon (Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW)) and an expert opinion survey, facilitates the assessment of the market activity in towns where transactions are scarce. Trade in property is lower in areas at risk of flooding than for the remaining parts of the town. The potential flood hazard zone affects both the activity of the property market and the average prices of land. The study demonstrated that both a flood and flood risk affect the levels of market activity and the prices of residential land. However, this impact differs at various times and locations and is greater immediately after a flood. Properties located in the most attractive location within an area are characterised by a greater sensitivity to this risk.