Research on the Spatial Pattern of Carbon Emissions and Differentiated Peak Paths at the County Level in Shandong Province, China

Abstract

In the pursuit of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality objectives, county-level areas assume a pivotal role in orchestrating diverse initiatives for low-carbon development. However, empirical evidence is limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring the driving factors of carbon peak and carbon peak path at the county level, using Shandong Province as a case study. Employing data related to economic development, industrial structure, land utilization, energy consumption, and emission characteristics, a principal component analysis (PCA) was utilized to extract the following five driving factors of carbon peak: green transformation, urbanization, industrial construction, energy consumption, and environmental constraints. Subsequently, K-means clustering identified five cluster areas: (1) agricultural transformation pending area, (2) low-carbon lagging area, (3) industrial transformation area, (4) low-carbon potential areas, and (5) low-carbon demonstration area. Based on these areas, this study further elucidates spatial combination models of carbon peak within the urban system, spanning central cities, coastal cities, resource-based cities, and agricultural cities. The paper enhances comprehension of the integral role county-level areas play in achieving China’s carbon reduction objectives. By providing nuanced insights into diverse developmental trajectories and spatial interactions, the study contributes to effective low-carbon strategy formulation. The findings underscore the importance of considering specific county attributes in urban areas to devise precise optimization strategies and trajectories, ultimately facilitating the realization of carbon peak goals.