Development of a Nomogram Model for Treatment of Elderly Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Abstract

(1) Purpose: This study aims to explore risk-adapted treatment for elderly patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC) according to their pretreatment risk stratification and the degree of comorbidity. (2) Methods: A total of 583 elderly LA-NPC patients diagnosed from January 2011 to January 2018 are retrospectively studied. A nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) is constructed based on multivariate Cox regression analysis. The performance of the model is evaluated by using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve and Harrell concordance index (C-index). Then, the entire cohort is divided into different risk groups according to the nomogram cutoff value determined by X-tile analysis. The degree of comorbidities is assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Finally, survival rates are estimated and compared by the Kaplan–Meier method and the log-rank test. (3) Results: A nomogram for DFS is constructed with T/N classification, Epstein-Barr virus DNA and albumin. The nomogram shows well prognostic performance and significantly outperformed the tumor-node-metastasis staging system for estimating DFS (AUC, 0.710 vs. 0.607; C-index, 0.668 vs. 0.585; both p < 0.001). The high-risk group generated by nomogram has significantly poorer survival compared with the low-risk group (3-year DFS, 76.7% vs. 44.6%, p < 0.001). For high-risk patients with fewer comorbidities (CCI = 2), chemotherapy combined with radiotherapy is associated with significantly better survival (p < 0.05) than radiotherapy alone. (4) Conclusion: A prognostic nomogram for DFS is constructed with generating two risk groups. Combining risk stratification and the degree of comorbidities can guide risk-adapted treatment for elderly LA-NPC patients.