Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury

Abstract

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can lead to severe adverse clinical outcomes, including death and disability. Early detection of in-hospital mortality in high-risk populations may enable early treatment and potentially reduce mortality using machine learning. However, there is limited information on in-hospital mortality prediction models for TBI patients admitted to emergency departments. The aim of this study was to create a model that successfully predicts, from clinical measures and demographics, in-hospital mortality in a sample of TBI patients admitted to the emergency department. Of the 4881 TBI patients who were screened at the emergency department at a high-level first aid duty hospital in northern Taiwan, 3331 were assigned in triage to Level I or Level II using the Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale from January 2008 to June 2018. The most significant predictors of in-hospital mortality in TBI patients were the scores on the Glasgow coma scale, the injury severity scale, and systolic blood pressure in the emergency department admission. This study demonstrated the effective cutoff values for clinical measures when using machine learning to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with TBI. The prediction model has the potential to further accelerate the development of innovative care-delivery protocols for high-risk patients.