Evaluation and Projections of Wind Power Resources over China for the Energy Industry Using CMIP5 Models

Abstract

The energy industry is faced with important investment and optimization choices especially for wind power as a fuel of the future, especially for China which boasts the largest installed wind power capacity. This study therefore assessed the potential status of future wind power over China using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Changes in wind power density relative to the current time period 1981–2005 were then analyzed using near-surface wind speeds extrapolated to hub-height of 90 m above ground level. The results showed relatively modest differences between the models and reanalysis. The majority of the models showed any two of location, shape, and size agreement for peak areas albeit models BCC-CSM-1-1-M, BNU-ESM, and CanESM2 tended to overestimate wind speed by up to 2.5 m/s. The multi-model ensemble mean performed better than most individual models in representing the wind characteristics over the study area. Future changes in wind power density showed an increase (decrease) over the coastal areas of the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal (areas along the 30°–40° N belt). In all, the changes were not significant enough to neither warrant a move away from wind energy nor threaten considerably the marketability and profitability under the present warming scenario rate.