Identifying Challenges to 3D Hydrodynamic Modeling for a Small, Stratified Tropical Lake in the Philippines

Abstract

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling for small, stratified tropical lakes in the Philippines and in Southeast Asia in general is not deeply explored. This study pioneers investigating the hydrodynamics of a small crater lake in the Philippines with a focus on temperature simulation using a Fantom Refined 3D model that has been tested mostly for temperate and sub-tropical lakes. The lake’s monthly temperature during the dry season served as a reference for the model’s initial condition and validation. For the simulation to proceed, input data such as weather, inflow, and bathymetry were prepared. In the absence of hourly meteorological data from local weather stations, this paper adopted the satellite weather data from Solcast. Simple correlation analysis of daily weather data between local stations and Solcast showed valid and acceptable results. Inflow values were estimated using the rational method while the stream temperature was estimated from a regression equation using air temperatures as input. The validated satellite-derived data and runoff model can therefore be employed for 3D modeling. The simulations resulted in extremely higher temperatures compared with those observed when using previous default model settings. Direct modifications were then applied to weather parameters, compromising their integrity but resulting in reasonable profiles. By adding scaling factors to heat flux equations and multiplying their components by 0.75 (shortwave), 1.35 (longwave), 0.935 (air temperature), and 0.80 (wind), better results were achieved. This study identifies several challenges in performing 3D hydrodynamic modeling, such as paucity in input hydro-meteorologic and limnologic data and the need for heat flux model improvement. Overall, this study was successful in employing 3D hydrodynamic modeling in a tropical lake, which can pave directions and serve as an excellent reference for future modeling in the same region.