Evaluating the Disaster Risk of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using an Ecological Niche Model

Abstract

Since 2019, the novel coronavirus has spread rapidly worldwide, greatly affecting social stability and human health. Pandemic prevention has become China’s primary task in responding to the transmission of COVID-19. Risk mapping and the proposal and implementation of epidemic prevention measures emphasize many research efforts. In this study, we collected location information for confirmed COVID-19 cases in Beijing, Shenyang, Dalian, and Shijiazhuang from 5 October 2020 to 5 January 2021, and selected 15 environmental variables to construct a model that comprehensively considered the parameters affecting the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 epidemics. Annual average temperature, catering, medical facilities, and other variables were processed using ArcGIS 10.3 and classified into three groups, including natural environmental variables, positive socio-environmental variables, and benign socio-environmental variables. We modeled the epidemic risk distribution for each area using the MaxEnt model based on the case occurrence data and environmental variables in four regions, and evaluated the key environmental variables influencing the epidemic distribution. The results showed that medium-risk zones were mainly distributed in Changping and Shunyi in Beijing, while Huanggu District in Shenyang and the southern part of Jinzhou District and the eastern part of Ganjingzi District in Dalian also represented areas at moderate risk of epidemics. For Shijiazhuang, Xinle, Gaocheng and other places were key COVID-19 epidemic spread areas. The jackknife assessment results revealed that positive socio-environmental variables are the most important factors affecting the outbreak and spread of COVID-19. The average contribution rate of the seafood market was 21.12%, and this contribution reached as high as 61.3% in Shenyang. The comprehensive analysis showed that improved seafood market management, strengthened crowd control and information recording, industry-catered specifications, and well-trained employees have become urgently needed prevention strategies in different regions. The comprehensive analysis indicated that the niche model could be used to classify the epidemic risk and propose prevention and control strategies when combined with the assessment results of the jackknife test, thus providing a theoretical basis and information support for suppressing the spread of COVID-19 epidemics.