How Did the Late 1980s Climate Regime Shift Affect Temperature-Sensitive Fish Population Dynamics: Case Study of Vendace (Coregonus albula) in a Large North-Temperate Lake

Abstract

The population dynamics of fish in northern lakes is strongly influenced by climatic factors. In this study, we investigated whether there is a link between the late 1980s climate regime shift in Europe and the collapse of vendace (Coregonus albula) population at the same time in Lake Peipsi. Until the end of the 1980s, vendace was very abundant in the lake, but then its catches sharply declined. This decline inspired investigations into the extreme weather events preceding the vendace collapse using data on daily water temperatures and ice phenology together with commercial fishery statistics since 1931 and test catch data since 1986. We identified using advanced statistical methods that the hot summer of 1988, which was accompanied by a severe cyanobacterial bloom and extensive fish kill, and the subsequent non-permanent ice cover and early ice-offs in 1989 and 1990 in Lake Peipsi were the main reasons for the disappearance of vendace from catches in 1991. Moreover, a negative correlation appeared between catches of the predatory pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) and vendace. Predation pressure as well as fish habitat degradation caused by lake eutrophication may contribute to the instability of the vendace population too. Our study showed that extreme weather events such as heat waves in summer and non-permanent ice-cover in winter in consecutive years may have long-lasting harmful effects on the population abundance of cool-water fish species such as vendace whose eggs usually develop under an ice cover in north-temperate lakes.