Identification of Risk Areas of Dengue Transmission in Culiacan, Mexico

Abstract

Dengue is a public health problem in more than 100 countries around the world and in virtually the entire region of the Americas, including Mexico. Mosquitoes of the genus Aedes aegypti transmit dengue; its reproduction requires certain geographical, epidemiological, demographic and socioeconomic conditions. Detailed information on socioeconomic, epidemiological and entomological data is available, but detailed meteorological information is not. The objective of this study was to identify the areas of risk of dengue transmission for each month of the year based on environmental, social, entomological and epidemiological information from 2010 to 2020, in Culiacan, Mexico. LST, NDVI and NDMI were calculated from Landsat 8 satellite images with remote sensing techniques. Additional variables were human population density and overcrowding; mosquito egg density from positive ovitraps; and probable cases of dengue. A descriptive analysis of the study variables and a multiple linear regression analysis were performed to determine the significant variables. In addition, a multicriteria spatial analysis was applied through the AHP technique to identify areas at risk of dengue transmission. The results revealed that the variables NDVI, NDMI and overcrowding were not significant; however, the LST, population density, egg density per positive ovitrap and probable cases were. The highest population in the transmission risk areas was in November, and the highest transmission area was identified in October. In conclusion, it was possible to identify which of the study variables were significant; in addition, monthly maps of risk areas of dengue transmission for Culiacan were obtained. Each geographical area had its own characteristics that influenced, in one way or another, the incidence of dengue, highlighting that the strategies for control of dengue must be specific to each region.