Exploring the Initial Impact of COVID-19 Sentiment on US Stock Market Using Big Data

Abstract

This study explores the initial impact of COVID-19 sentiment on US stock market using big data. Using the Daily News Sentiment Index (DNSI) and Google Trends data on coronavirus-related searches, this study investigates the correlation between COVID-19 sentiment and 11 select sector indices of the Unites States (US) stock market over the period from 21st of January 2020 to 20th of May 2020. While extensive research on sentiment analysis for predicting stock market movement use tweeter data, not much has used DNSI or Google Trends data. In addition, this study examines whether changes in DNSI predict US industry returns differently by estimating the time series regression model with excess returns of industry as the dependent variable. The excess returns are obtained from the Fama-French three factor model. The results of this study offer a comprehensive view of the initial impact of COVID-19 sentiment on the US stock market by industry and furthermore suggests the strategic investment planning considering the time lag perspectives by visualizing changes in the correlation level by time lag differences.