Evaluating the Effectiveness of Time Series Transformers for Demand Forecasting in Retail

Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of Transformer-based models for retail demand forecasting. We evaluated vanilla Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, PatchTST, and temporal fusion Transformer (TFT) against traditional baselines like AutoARIMA and AutoETS. Model performance was assessed using mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and weighted quantile loss (WQL). The M5 competition dataset, comprising 30,490 time series from 10 stores, served as the evaluation benchmark. The results demonstrate that Transformer-based models significantly outperform traditional baselines, with Transformer, Informer, and TFT leading the performance metrics. These models achieved MASE improvements of 26% to 29% and WQL reductions of up to 34% compared to the seasonal Naïve method, particularly excelling in short-term forecasts. While Autoformer and PatchTST also surpassed traditional methods, their performance was slightly lower, indicating the potential for further tuning. Additionally, this study highlights a trade-off between model complexity and computational efficiency, with Transformer models, though computationally intensive, offering superior forecasting accuracy compared to the significantly slower traditional models like AutoARIMA. These findings underscore the potential of Transformer-based approaches for enhancing retail demand forecasting, provided the computational demands are managed effectively.