Assessment of the Predictive Value of Spectrophotometric Skin Color Parameters and Environmental and Behavioral Factors in Estimating the Risk of Skin Cancer: A Case–Control Study

Abstract

Keratinocyte carcinomas are the most common cancers with different etiological risk factors. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of spectrophotometric parameters of skin color in correlation with environmental/behavioral factors to estimate the risk of skin cancer. The case–control study involved 389 patients. The analysis was performed on the training group to build a predictive model and on the testing group to check the quality of the designed model. Area under the curve based on the spectrophotometric skin parameters varied from 0.536 to 0.674. A statistically significant improvement of the area under curve was achieved by adding the number of sunburns for some models. The best single spectrophotometric measurement for estimating skin cancer is the skin melanin index measured on the arm or buttock. Spectrophotometric skin parameters are not very strong but are essential elements of models for estimating the risk of skin cancer. The most important environmental/behavioral factor seems to be the number of sunburns, but not the total exposure to ultraviolet radiation or usage of photoprotectors. Some other pigmentation predictors should be taken into account when creating new models, especially those that can be easily measured in objective and repeatable way. Spectrophotometric measurements can be employed as quick screening skin examination method.