Modelling Ecological Hazards and Causal Factors in the Yellow River Basin’s Key Tributaries: A Case Study of the Kuye River Basin and Its Future Outlook

Abstract

The Kuye River is the second largest tributary of the middle Yellow River. (1) Background: The Kuye River Basin, a typical erosion area of the Loess Plateau region, faces significant environmental challenges and intense human activities. Balancing environmental sustainability and economic development in this region is urgent. (2) Methods: This study analyses the phenomena, evolutionary processes, driving mechanisms, and future development trends. We assess ecological risks and drivers of land use change using data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022. (3) Results: Farmland, grassland, and construction land are the main land use types, accounting for 85.63% of the total area. Construction land increased by 7.95 times over 22 years, mainly due to the conversion of woodland, grassland, and farmland. The landscape pattern increased in patches from 4713 in 2000 to 6522 in 2022. Patch density decreased from 0.0945 to 0.0771 between 2000 and 2015, then rose to 0.0788 in 2022. Post-2015, increased human intervention and urban development led to significant landscape fragmentation and higher ecological risk, expected to persist until 2030. Geographical detector analysis identified distance from roads, distance from cities, night light, and precipitation as key factors influencing landscape ecological risk. The interaction of anthropogenic disturbance with other factors showed a non-linear increase in risk, with combined factors having a greater impact than individual ones. (4) Conclusions: The Kuye River Basin’s landscape ecological risk is influenced by both natural conditions and human activities. To achieve sustainability, it is essential to protect critical areas, regulate development, and improve the adaptive management of ecological risks through innovative policies, integrated regulations, and technological solutions for ecosystem restoration. These findings provide empirical evidence to support decision-making and underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate ecological risks and promote sustainable development in the Kuye River Basin.