An Empirical Study of the Policy Processes behind Norway’s BEV-Olution

Abstract

Norway’s large battery electric vehicle (BEV) market and fleet are not the result of a comprehensive policy plan. Using the multiple streams (MS) framework and document analysis, it was identified that the most important Norwegian BEV policy decisions were made using inadequate policy processes that fall outside of traditional politics. This is contrary to the MS framework postulate that three independent streams of problems, policy solutions, and politics must align to pave the way for new policies. Politicians had limited information about the effects of policies they introduced in this “learning by doing process”. Impact assessments were rarely made. The decision rationale was often not documented. The future market expectation and thus the national budget consequences were low when important policy decisions were made, whereas the political gain was high. The processes were more aligned with traditional politics after 2014. The ambitious ZE vehicle targets for 2025 and the climate policy targets for 2030 locked in incentives, despite rising tax losses. In sum, these developments created the world’s largest per-capita BEV market. To avoid negative issues and keep the BEV policies’ potential to support the BEV transition, politicians should ensure that sufficient knowledge is available when making decisions about future policies. Such decisions should be taken transparently within traditional politics, be properly assessed as with EU policy processes, and regularly reviewed as with the California ZEV mandate process. The required knowledge should be developed in open-access research.