Temperature Changes and Their Impact on Drought Conditions in Winter and Spring in the Vistula Basin

Abstract

Inter-annual variability of hydro-meteorological variables indirectly influence soil moisture conditions in winter and early spring seasons. The interactions between temperature changes and drought conditions are studied by an application of statistical analyses of minimum temperature (Tmin), consecutive days with temperature exceeding the 0 °C threshold value, the number of melting pulses in the winter season and Standardized Evaporation Precipitation Index (SPEI). Additionally, shifts in the onset of days with spring temperature and snow cover occurrence are analysed. A Mann–Kendall test is applied for the trend analysis. Studies have shown significant changes in thermal characteristics in the winter season over the past 70 years, which affect the moisture conditions in the Vistula River Basin. As a result of those changes, the Vistula Basin is more prone to droughts.