Potential Bioclimatic Ranges of Crop Pests Zabrus tenebrioides and Harpalus rufipes during Climate Change Conditions

Abstract

The ground beetles Zabrus tenebrioides and Harpalus rufipes (Coleoptera, Carabidae) are two of the most prevalent pests of wheat and other grasses. This article presents current data on their distribution and the results of modelling the bioclimatic ranges of these species using the maximum entropy method. To improve the model, we used various RStudio packages including the R script “thin points 4-1-18.R” package spThin and the «Raster» RStudio package. We determined the climatic parameters that promote the dispersal of the species, as well as the optimum conditions for the growth of Z. tenebrioides and H. rufipes. Maps forecasting the distribution of the studied species were generated through the perspective of two climate scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. For the modelling, we utilised 435 geographic points of Z. tenebrioides occurrence and 653 points of H. rufipes occurrence. Both species have similar bioclimatic ranges, and the most favourable conditions for them are fields of grain crops. The most significant parameters influencing Z. tenebrioides are those of moisture, whereas H. rufipes is most sensitive to the temperature parameters. According to the generated climatic models for both species, a decrease in the areas of their ranges would occur in their eastern, more continental areas, with a slight shift towards the north.