The Role of Environmental Background Processes in Determining Groundwater Level Variability—An Investigation of a Record Flood Event Using Dynamic Factor Analysis

Abstract

Since groundwater is a major source of water for drinking and for industrial and irrigation uses, the identification of the environmental processes determining groundwater level fluctuation is potentially a matter of great consequence, especially in light of the fact that the frequency of extreme climate events may be expected to increase, causing changes in groundwater recharge systems. In the recent study, data measured at a frequency of one hour were collected from the Szigetköz, an inland delta of the Danube. These were then used to determine the presence, or not, and magnitude of any hidden environmental background factors that may be causing groundwater level fluctuations. Through the application of dynamic factor analysis, it was revealed that changes in groundwater level are mainly determined by (i) the water level of neighboring rivers and (ii) evapotranspiration. The intensity of these factors may also be estimated spatially. If the background factors determined by dynamic factor analysis do indeed figure in the linear model as variables, then the time series of groundwater levels can be said to have been accurately estimated with the use of linear regression. The accuracy of the estimate is indicated by the fact that adjusted coefficient of determination exceeds 0.9 in 80% of the wells. The results, via an enhanced understanding of the reasons for changes in the fluctuation of groundwater, could assist in the development of sustainable water management and irrigation strategies and the preparation for varying potential climate change scenarios.