Mathematical Modelling of Gonorrhoea Spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Mathematical Modelling of Gonorrhoea Spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022

Published:2024-06-06 Issue:2 Volume:69 Page:114-141
ISSN:2813-9054
Container-title:Acta Microbiologica Hellenica
language:en
Short-container-title:AMH

Author:

Kiss Gabor¹,Corken Daniel¹,Hall Rebecca¹,Ibrahim Alhassan²³,Moutari Salissou¹^ORCID,Kee Frank⁴,Armstrong Gillian⁵,Bradley Declan⁴⁵,Middleton Maeve⁵,Patterson Lynsey⁴⁵,Lamrock Felicity¹

Affiliation:

1. Mathematical Sciences Research Centre, School of Mathematics & Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK

2. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology, Thonburi (KMUTT), 126 Pracha Uthit Road, Bang Mod, Thrung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand

3. School of Continuing Education, Bayero University, Kano 700251, Nigeria

4. Centre for Public Health, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast BT12 6BA, UK

5. Public Health Agency, Belfast BT2 8BS, UK

Abstract

The number of confirmed positive tests of various sexually transmitted infections has grown recently in the United Kingdom. The objective of this study is to propose a deterministic compartmental model to investigate gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022. The differential equation based model includes both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, spontaneous recovery and treatment compartments. After fitting our model to the monthly number of new positive tests, we found that the basic reproduction number is approximately 1.0030. In addition, we derive the endemic equilibrium of the model, which exists if and only if R0>1. The sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number and the endemic values of the compartments of treated individuals indicate that infection spreading time can have a significant impact on gonorrhoea spread.

Funder

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Publisher

MDPI AG

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/2813-9054/69/2/12/pdf

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