Analysis on Management Policies on Water Quantity Conflict in Transboundary Rivers Embedded with Virtual Water—Using Ili River as the Case

Abstract

Current studies neglect how virtual water transfer (VWT) between countries within a drainage basin affects water stress and then yields an invisible effect on the water quantity conflict in transboundary rivers, which would further make management policies on water quantity conflict less fair and reasonable. Therefore, this study first constructs the Inequality Index of VWT and water stress index (WSI) to assess water stress. Next, different types are set according to the Inequality Index and WSI to analyze management policies, with Ili River as the case. Results show: (1) Within the study period, from 1996, the Inequality Index of VWT between China and Kazakhstan stayed at 0.368 (0.368 < 0.5), indicating a relatively high inequality of VWT between the two countries—China at a disadvantage, while Kazakhstan having the upper hand. (2) According to the remotely sensed data, WSI in the riparian zones of the Ili River rose from 0.288 to 0421 in China, and 0214 to 0.402 in Kazakhstan, showing intermediate scarcity. (3) China and Kazakhstan both fall into Type 2, and Kazakhstan has the advantageous position. Therefore, while allocating the water resources of the Ili River, Kazakhstan should lower its expectation and proactively ask to exchange benefits in other aspects to reverse the outward transfer of its physical water. In addition, the two countries should find suitable ways to go about water rights trading to reduce the possibility of potential water quantity conflict.