Prediction of the Uric Acid Component in Nephrolithiasis Using Simple Clinical Information about Metabolic Disorder and Obesity: A Machine Learning-Based Model

Abstract

There is a great need for a diagnostic tool using simple clinical information collected from patients to diagnose uric acid (UA) stones in nephrolithiasis. We built a predictive model making use of machine learning (ML) methodologies entering simple parameters easily obtained at the initial clinical visit. Socio-demographic, health, and clinical data from two cohorts (A and B), both diagnosed with nephrolithiasis, one between 2012 and 2016 and the other between June and December 2020, were collected before nephrolithiasis treatment. A ML-based model for predicting UA stones in nephrolithiasis was developed using eight simple parameters—sex, age, gout, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, bacteriuria, and urine pH. Data from Cohort A were used for model training and validation (ratio 3:2), while data from Cohort B were used only for validation. One hundred and forty-six (13.3%) out of 1098 patients in Cohort A and 3 (4.23%) out of 71 patients in Cohort B had pure UA stones. For Cohort A, our model achieved a validation AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.842, with 0.8475 sensitivity and 0.748 specificity. For Cohort B, our model achieved 0.936 AUC, with 1.0 sensitivity, and 0.912 specificity. This ML-based model provides a convenient and reliable method for diagnosing urolithiasis. Using only eight readily available clinical parameters, including information about metabolic disorder and obesity, it distinguished pure uric acid stones from other stones before treatment.