Estimation of the Evacuation Time According to Different Flood Depths

Abstract

This study focused on pre-flood measures to estimate evacuation times impacted by flood depths and identify alternate routes to reduce loss of life and manage evacuation measures during flood disasters. Evacuation measures, including traffic characteristics, were reviewed according to different flood depths. Several scenarios were constructed for different flooding situations and traffic volumes. Evacuation times in the study area were evaluated and compared for all scenarios with reference to dry conditions. Results of network performance indicators compared to the dry situation showed that average speed dropped to 2 km/h, VHT rose above 200%, and VKT rose above 30%. Cumulative evacuee arrival percentage increased when flood levels were higher than 5 cm. Flood levels of 10–15, 15–20, 20–25, and 25–30 cm represented percentages of remaining evacuees at 9%, 19%, 49%, and 83%, respectively. Time taken to evacuate increased according to flood level. For flood depths of 5–30 cm, travel time increased by 40, 90, 260, and 670 min, respectively, suggesting the need for early evacuation before the flood situation becomes serious.