Capacity Estimation of Solar Farms Using Deep Learning on High-Resolution Satellite Imagery

Abstract

Global solar photovoltaic capacity has consistently doubled every 18 months over the last two decades, going from 0.3 GW in 2000 to 643 GW in 2019, and is forecast to reach 4240 GW by 2040. However, these numbers are uncertain, and virtually all reporting on deployments lacks a unified source of either information or validation. In this paper, we propose, optimize, and validate a deep learning framework to detect and map solar farms using a state-of-the-art semantic segmentation convolutional neural network applied to satellite imagery. As a final step in the pipeline, we propose a model to estimate the energy generation capacity of the detected solar energy facilities. Objectively, the deep learning model achieved highly competitive performance indicators, including a mean accuracy of 96.87%, and a Jaccard Index (intersection over union of classified pixels) score of 95.5%. Subjectively, it was found to detect spaces between panels producing a segmentation output at a sub-farm level that was better than human labeling. Finally, the detected areas and predicted generation capacities were validated against publicly available data to within an average error of 4.5% Deep learning applied specifically for the detection and mapping of solar farms is an active area of research, and this deep learning capacity evaluation pipeline is one of the first of its kind. We also share an original dataset of overhead solar farm satellite imagery comprising 23,000 images (256 × 256 pixels each), and the corresponding labels upon which the machine learning model was trained.