Enhancement of Photovoltaic Power Potential in China from 2010 to 2020: The Contribution of Air Pollution Control Policies

Abstract

China is expected to have a total installed photovoltaic capacity of 1300 GW in 2050, accounting for 39% of the national electricity consumption. However, air pollutants consisting of gases and particulates have attenuation effects on the solar radiation reaching the photovoltaic panels. This work purports to assess the influence of air pollutants on the photovoltaic power potential. We calculated the hourly point-of-array irradiance (POAI) in China for 2010–2020 with a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° using the PV_LIB model and assessed the effect of air pollutants on POAI. The results indicated that the annual average POAI in China for 2010–2020 ranged from 118 to 286 Wm−2. The Air Pollution Control Action Plan (APPCAP) has played a certain role in photovoltaic power potential, and POAI has increased in areas where surface concentrations of air pollutants have declined. Especially in North China, the surface concentrations of CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 decreased throughout the APPCAP period with −0.446, −4.985, −35.610, −30.700, and −26.251 μgm−3, respectively, corresponding to an increase in POAI of up to 4.917 Wm−2. The surface concentrations of CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 were negatively correlated with POAI, with correlation coefficients of −0.764, −0.854, −0.204, −0.110, and −0.664, respectively. Surface concentrations of air pollutants (CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2) and clear-sky POAI in 2018 showed a High-Low clustering in Northeast China and North China. This study demonstrates the role of China’s air pollution control policy in enhancing photovoltaic power potential.