Addressing the Sustainability Issue in Smart Cities: A Comprehensive Model for Evaluating the Impacts of Electric Vehicle Diffusion

Abstract

The present paper proposes a model for evaluating environmental, social, and economic impacts exerted by the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs), which is a phenomenon that can significantly affect the achievement of some of the objectives set by the Sustainable Development Agenda. The impact evaluation is carried out through the System Dynamics methodology, combined with scenario analysis. Considering the Piedmont region (Italy) as a case study, the model forecasts the impacts of EV diffusion using a simulation timeframe of 12 years and leveraging eight EV diffusion scenarios. According to the model, an increase in the number of EVs results in less air pollution and, therefore, minor public health expenditure. These cost savings can be turned into incentives for purchasing new EVs, which make the fleet increasingly greener as part of a self-reinforcing loop. Despite the fact that the model could be improved through additional research on some variables’ definitions, this ex ante evaluation tool represents a valuable instrument for policy-makers. In fact, it provides a comprehensive picture of EV diffusion in view of the triple sustainability principles: System Dynamics, in particular, allows singling out causal relationships among variables, thus anticipating possible effects of planned policy actions.