The Potential Role of Climate Indices to Explain Floods, Mass-Movement Events and Wildfires in Southern Italy

Abstract

Climate variability can be the source of several multiple hazards and damaging phenomena, such as flash floods, debris flows, landslides, forest fires, etc. In this study the response in the frequency of landslides, floods and forest fires to a set of climate indices is studied, referring to a region of southern Italy (Calabria) located in the center of the Mediterranean basin, a hot-spot for climate change. For these comparisons, 5022 landslides and 1584 flood occurrences for a 29-year period (1990–2018) have been selected for the whole Calabria; the burnt areas have been analyzed for the same territory from 2008 to 2018. The climate indices have been calculated by means of daily rainfall and temperature data registered in 93 stations. The results showed that landslide occurrences are more linked with climate indices describing not very intense rainfall. Conversely, floods show best matches with climate indices representative of more extreme precipitation. Regarding the burnt areas, the results confirmed that very dry climate conditions, modifying the moisture content of the soil, can change the intensity and the extension of fires.