Trend of Changes in Phenological Components of Iran’s Vegetation Using Satellite Observations

Abstract

Investigating vegetation changes, especially plant phenology, can yield valuable information about global warming and climate change. Time series satellite observations and remote sensing methods offer a great source of information on distinctions and changing aspects of vegetation. The current study aimed to determine the trend and rate of changes in some phenological components of Iran’s vegetation. In this regard, the current study employed the daily NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) product of the AVHRR sensor with a spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°, named AVH13C1. Then, using the HANTS algorithm, images of amplitude zero, annual amplitude, and annual phase were prepared annually from 1982 to 2019. Using TIMESAT software, the starting, end, and length of time of growing season were calculated for each pixel time series to prepare annual maps. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to investigate the significance of changes during the study period. On average in the entire area of Iran, the annual phase was declining with a trend of −0.6° per year, and the time for the start and end of the season was declining by −0.3 and −0.65 days per year, respectively. Major changes were noticed in the northeast, west, and northwest regions of Iran, where the annual phase declined with a trend of −0.9° per year. Since the annual growth cycle of the plant (equivalent to 356 days) was in the form of a sinusoidal signal, and the angular changes in the sine wave were between zero and 360°, each degree of change was equivalent to 1.01 days per year. Therefore, the reduction in the annual phase by −0.9 degrees almost means a change in the time (due to the earlier negative start phase) of the start of the annual growth signal by −0.9 days per year. The time of the start and end of the growing season declined by −0.6 and −1.33 days per year, respectively. The reduction in annual phase and differences in time of the starting season from 1982 to 2019 indicate the acceleration and earlier initiation of various phenological processes in the area.