Decoupling Effect and Driving Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin Using Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

Land-use change is a crucial element influencing the patterns of carbon sinks/sources in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Therefore, studying land-use carbon emissions (LUCE) in the YRB and the decoupling from economic development can help formulate emission reduction strategies. In order to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of LUCE in the YRB, we estimated the LUCE in 69 cities in the YRB using the downscale energy balance table estimation method and land-use remote sensing data for seven phases from 1990 to 2020. The spatial and temporal features of LUCE were researched from three different spatial scales: the whole spatial scale of the YRB, the sub-basin level, and the city level. Furthermore, the Tapio decoupling model was utilized to research the decoupling state between LUCE and economic development using a multi-scale approach. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model was employed to explore the influencing factors of LUCE in the YRB. These results showed the following: (1) The LUCE in the YRB went through two stages: “stable growth” (1990–2000) and “rapid growth” (2000–2020). The LUCE increased from 165 million tons in 1990 to 1.414 billion tons in 2020, and the average annual growth rate was 25.12%. The spatial pattern of LUCE in the YRB exhibited significant variations, with the LUCE showing a geographic differentiation of midstream > downstream > upstream. (2) Except for the expansive coupling state during 2000–2005 (e: 0.952) and the expansive negative decoupling state during 2015–2020 (e: 2.151), the YRB was in the weak decoupling state for the majority of the time periods. (3) Economic development was the major positive driving factor for the rise of LUCE in this basin, while energy consumption intensity was the primary inhibiting factor. Through a discussion of the features and influencing factors of LUCE, these results can be utilized to provide carbon emission reduction recommendations tailored to the characteristics of cities’ resources and economic development, which will be helpful for achieving low-carbon and sustainable development in the YRB.