A Slow Failure Particle Swarm Optimization Long Short-Term Memory for Significant Wave Height Prediction

Abstract

Significant wave height (SWH) prediction is crucial for marine safety and navigation. A slow failure particle swarm optimization for long short-term memory (SFPSO-LSTM) is proposed to enhance SWH prediction accuracy. This study utilizes data from four locations within the EAR5 dataset, covering 1 January to 31 May 2023, including variables like wind components, dewpoint temperature, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature. These variables predict SWH at 1-h, 3-h, 6-h, and 12-h intervals. SFPSO optimizes the LSTM training process. Evaluated with R2, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, SFPSO-LSTM outperformed the control group in 13 out of 16 experiments. Specifically, the model achieved an optimal RMSE of 0.059, a reduction of 0.009, an R2 increase to 0.991, an MAE of 0.045, and an MAPE of 0.032. Our results demonstrate that SFPSO-LSTM provides reliable and accurate SWH predictions, underscoring its potential for practical applications in marine and atmospheric sciences.