Time-Series Explanatory Fault Prediction Framework for Marine Main Engine Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

As engine monitoring data has become more complex with an increasing number of sensors, fault prediction based on artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged. Existing fault prediction models using AI significantly improve the accuracy of predictions by effectively handling such complex data, but at the same time, the problem arises that the AI-based models cannot explain the rationale of their predictions to users. To address this issue, we propose a time-series explanatory fault prediction framework to provide an explainability even when using AI-based fault prediction models. It consists of a data feature reduction process, a fault prediction model training process using long short-term memory, and an interpretation process of the fault prediction model via an explainable AI method. In particular, the proposed framework can explain a fault prediction based on time-series data. Therefore, it indicates which part of the data was significant for the fault prediction not only in terms of sensor type but also in terms of time. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate the proposed framework using various fault data by comparing the prediction performance of fault prediction and by assessing how well the main pre-symptoms of the fault are extracted when predicting a fault.