SICFormer: A 3D-Swin Transformer for Sea Ice Concentration Prediction

Abstract

Sea ice concentration (SIC) is an important dimension for characterising the geographical features of the pan-Arctic region. Trends in SIC bring new opportunities for human activities in the Arctic region. In this paper, we propose a deep learning technology-based sea ice concentration prediction model, SICFormer, which can realise end-to-end daily sea ice concentration prediction. Specifically, the model uses a 3D-Swin Transformer as an encoder and designs a decoder to reconstruct the predicted image based on PixelShuffle. This is a new model architecture that we have proposed. Single-day SIC data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for the years 2006 to 2022 are utilised. The results of 8-day short-term prediction experiments show that the average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the SICFormer model on the test set over the 5 years is 1.89%, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is 5.99%, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 4.32%, and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) is 0.98. Furthermore, the current popular deep learning models for spatio-temporal prediction are employed as a point of comparison given their proven efficacy on numerous public datasets. The comparison experiments show that the SICFormer model achieves the best overall performance.