Development of a Nomogram to Predict the Outcome for Patients with Soft Tissue Sarcoma

Abstract

Soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) are common cutaneous or subcutaneous neoplasms in dogs. Most STSs are initially treated by surgical excision, and local recurrence may develop in almost 20% of patients. Currently, it is difficult to predict which STS will recur after excision, but this ability would greatly assist patient management. In recent years, the nomogram has emerged as a tool to allow oncologists to predict an outcome from a combination of risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for canine STSs and determine if the nomogram could predict patient outcomes better than individual tumour characteristics. The current study provides the first evidence in veterinary oncology to support a role for the nomogram to assist with predicting the outcome for patients after surgery for STSs. The nomogram developed in this study accurately predicted tumour-free survival in 25 patients but failed to predict recurrence in 1 patient. Overall, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values for the nomogram were 96%, 45%, 45%, and 96%, respectively (area under the curve: AUC = 0.84). This study suggests a nomogram could play an important role in helping to identify patients who could benefit from revision surgery or adjuvant therapy for an STS.