New Insights into Modelling Bacterial Growth with Reference to the Fish Pathogen Flavobacterium psychrophilum

Abstract

Two new models, based upon the principles promulgated by Baranyi and co-workers are presented and resulting growth functions evaluated based upon their ability to mimic bacterial growth of the fish pathogen Flavobacterium psychrophilum. These growth functions make use of a dampening function to suppress potential growth, represented by a logistic, and are derived from rate:state differential equations. Dampening effects are represented by a rectangular hyperbola or a simple exponential, incorporated into a logistic differential equation and solved analytically resulting in two newly derived growth equations, viz. logistic × hyperbola (log × hyp) and logistic × exponential (log × exp). These characteristics result in flexible and robust growth functions that can be expressed as equations with biologically meaningful parameters. The newly derived functions (log × hyp and log × exp), along with the Baranyi (BAR), simple logistic (LOG) and its modified form (MLOG) were evaluated based upon examination of residuals and measures of goodness-of-fit and cross-validation. Using these criteria, log × hyp, log × exp and BAR performed better than, or at least equally well as, LOG and MLOG. In contrast with log × exp and BAR, log × hyp can be easily manipulated mathematically allowing for simple algebraic expressions for time and microbial biomass at inflexion point, in addition to maximum and scaled maximum growth rates.