Measurement and Simulation of Risk Coupling in Port Hazardous Chemical Logistics

Abstract

Hazardous chemical logistics and transportation accidents are the main type of port safety accidents. Correctly and objectively analyzing the causes of port hazardous chemical logistics safety accidents and the coupling mechanisms of risk generation are very important for reducing the occurrence of port hazardous chemical safety accidents. Based on the causal mechanism and coupling principle, in this paper, we construct a risk coupling system for port hazardous chemical logistics and analyze the coupling effects in the risk system. More specifically, a personnel–ship–environment–management system is established and the coupling between the four systems is explored. Taking Tianjin Port as an example, the risk coupling factors are analyzed in combination with system dynamics simulation. Under dynamic changes in coupling coefficients, the change of coupling effects are explored more intuitively, the logical relationships between logistics risks are analyzed and deduced, a comprehensive view of the coupling effects and their evolution process in accidents is provided, and the key causes of accidents and their coupling risk effects are identified. For port hazardous chemicals logistics safety accidents, the presented results not only allow for effective analysis of the causes of safety accidents, but also provide reference for the formulation of prevention strategies.