Can Population Mobility Make Cities More Resilient? Evidence from the Analysis of Baidu Migration Big Data in China

Abstract

Knowledge spillover and capital agglomeration caused by population migration behavior are of great significance for improving the carrying capacity and adaptability of the urban economy and promoting high-quality economic development. Based on the big data collected on urban migration during the Spring Festival travel period, this paper constructs geographic, economic and geo-economic matrices, introduces two instrumental variables, and uses a spatial econometric model to investigate the mechanism between population mobility and urban economic resilience. The results show that (1) urban economic resilience exhibits spatial correlation, and the correlation order is geo-economic matrix > economic matrix > geography matrix; (2) the economic resilience of inflow areas is significantly affected by the net inflow of population, and the urban economic resilience index increases by 0.36–0.56% when the population mobility index increases by one unit; (3) in the case of economic and geo-economic matrices, there is a spatial interaction relationship of neighbor-companion in the mechanism of population migration on urban economic resilience; and (4) the mechanism is significantly impacted by innovation input and fixed asset investment, with positive moderating effects. In the geographical and economic matrices, the innovation input effect has a negative externality, while in the economic and geo-economic matrices, the fixed asset investment effect has a positive externality.