Predictive Model for National Minimal CFR during Spontaneous Initial Outbreak of Emerging Infectious Disease: Lessons from COVID-19 Pandemic in 214 Nations and Regions

Abstract

The minimal case fatality rate (CFR) is one of the essential fundaments for the establishment of a diverse national response strategy against the COVID-19 epidemic, but cannot be quantitatively predicted. The aim of the present study was to explore the applicable quantitative parameters labeling integrating responding capacity from national daily CFR curves, and whether the minimal CFR during initial emerging epidemic outbreaks can be predicted. We analyzed data from 214 nations and regions during the initial 2020 COVID-19 epidemic and found similar falling zones marked with two turning points within a fitting three-day-moving CFR curve which occurred for many nations and regions. The turning points can be quantified with parameters for the day duration (T1, T2, and ΔT) and for the three-day moving arithmetic average CFRs (CFR1, CFR2, and ΔCFR) under wave theory for 71 nations and regions after screening. Two prediction models of minimal CFR were established with multiple linear regressions (M1) and multi-order curve regressions (M2) after internal and external evaluation. Three kinds of falling zones could be classified in the other 71 nations and regions. Only the minimal CFR showed significant correlations with nine independent national indicators in 65 nations and regions with CFRs less than 7%. Model M1 showed that logarithmic population, births per 1000 people, and household size made significant positive contributions, and logarithmic GDP, percentage of population aged 65+ years, domestic general government health expenditure, physicians per 1000 people, nurses per 1000 people, and body mass index made negative contributions to the minimal CFR against COVID-19 epidemics for most nations and regions. The spontaneous minimal CFR was predicted well with model M1 for 57 nations and regions based on the nine national indicators (R2 = 0.5074), or with model M2 for 59 nations and regions based on the nine national indicators (R2 = 0.8008) at internal evaluation. The study confirmed that national spontaneous minimal CFR could be predicted with models successfully for most nations and regions against COVID-19 epidemics, which provides a critical method to predict the essential early evidence to evaluate the integrating responding capacity and establish national responding strategies reasonably for other emerging infectious diseases in the future.