Longitudinal Analysis of Sustainable Tourism Potential of the Black Sea Riparian States Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey

Abstract

The three states that border the Black Sea benefit from an important potential for tourism and consider the development of this sector to be a major objective. Nonetheless, they face environmental risks. Tourism does not have a neutral impact on the ecosystem. We evaluated tourism sustainability for three states bordering the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. We used a longitudinal data analysis applied to five variables for the period between 2005 and 2020. The data were taken from the World Bank website. The results show that tourism receipts significantly influence the environment. For all three countries, the total receipts from international tourism are unsustainable, while the receipts for travel items are sustainable. Sustainability factors are different for each country. The international tourism expenditures for Bulgaria, the total receipts for Romania and the receipts for travel items for Turkey are sustainable. In Bulgaria, the receipts from international tourism contribute to higher greenhouse gas emissions, i.e., negative environmental impact. In Romania and Turkey, the number of arrivals has the same impact. No sustainable tourism model could be identified for the three countries. Tourism activity was found to be sustainable only due to the receipts for travel items, that is, indirectly, from tourism-related activities.