Myanmar’s Land Cover Change and Its Driving Factors during 2000–2020

Abstract

Land use/cover change (LUCC) research occupies an important place in the study of global change. It is important for the ecological protection and long-term development of a place. Current research is lacking in the study of dynamic changes at the national level in Myanmar over long time periods and sequences. Quantitative research on the driving factors of LUCC is also lacking. This paper uses the GLC_FCS30 (Global Land-Cover product with Fine Classification System) dataset and socio-economic statistical data in Myanmar to conduct the study. The dynamic change process of LUC (land use/cover) was investigated using the land use dynamic degree, land use transfer matrix, and Sankey diagram. Principal component analysis was used to derive the main drivers of LUCC. The drivers were quantified using multiple linear stepwise regression analysis and specific factors were analyzed. The spatial scope of the study is Myanmar, and the temporal scope is 2000–2020. Results: (1) In 2020, the spatial distribution of LUC in Myanmar shows predominantly forests and croplands. Forests account for 56.64% of the country’s total area. Agricultural land accounts for 25.59% of the country’s total area. (2) Over the time scale of the study, the trend of LUCC in Myanmar showed significant shrinkage of evergreen broad-leaved forest and deciduous broad-leaved forest (a total shrinkage of −3.34 × 104 km2) and expansion of the other land types. (3) Over the time scale of the study, the dynamic changes in LUCC in Myanmar most occurred as an interconversion between two land types, such as between cropland and deciduous broad-leaved forest, evergreen broad-leaved forest and shrubland, deciduous broad-leaved forest and shrubland, evergreen broad-leaved forest and evergreen needle-leaved forest, and evergreen broad-leaved forest and deciduous broad-leaved forest. (4) The dynamics of LUC in Myanmar is mainly influenced by the socio-economic level of the country. Among them, the impact of agricultural level is the most obvious. Specifically, Myanmar’s LUCC is mainly driven by urban population, urbanization rate, industrial value added, food production, and total population. Our research will enable the Myanmar government to make more scientific and rational land management and planning and to make more informed decisions. After understanding the basic situation of LUCC in Myanmar, the hydrological effects, biodiversity changes, and ecological service function changes due to land change in the region can be explored. This is the direction of future research.