Older People Living Alone: A Predictive Model of Fall Risk

Author:

Lage Isabel1,Braga Fátima12,Almendra Manuela12,Meneses Filipe345,Teixeira Laetitia67,Araújo Odete128ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Nursing, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal

2. Nursing Research Centre, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal

3. School of Engineering, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal

4. Centro de Computação Gráfica, 4800-058 Guimarães, Portugal

5. Algoritmi Research Centre, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal

6. ICBAS, University of Porto, 4050-313 Porto, Portugal

7. CINTESIS@RISE, ICBAS, University of Porto, 4050-313 Porto, Portugal

8. Health Sciences Research Unit: Nursing (UICISA:E), Nursing School of Coimbra (ESEnfC), 3045-043 Coimbra, Portugal

Abstract

Falls in older people are a result of a combination of multiple risk factors. There are few studies involving predictive models in a community context. The aim of this study was to determine the validation of a new model for predicting fall risk in older adults (65+) living alone in community dwellings (n = 186; n = 117) with a test–retest reliability study. We consider in the predictive model the significant factors emerged from the bivariate analysis: age, zone, social community resources, physical exercise, self-perception of health, difficulty to keep standing, difficulty to sit and get up from a chair, strain to see, use of technical devices, hypertension and number of medications. The final model explained 28.5% of the risk of falling in older adults living alone in community dwellings. The AUC = 0.660 (se = 0.065, IC 95% 0.533–0.787, p = 0.017). The predictive model developed revealed a satisfactory discriminatory performance of the model and can contribute to clinical practice, with respect to the evaluation of risk of falling in this frailty group and preventing falls.

Funder

Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Reference32 articles.

1. World Health Organization (2023, June 15). Ageing and Health. Available online: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health#:~:text=By%202030%2C%201%20in%206,in%202020%20to%201.4%20billion.

2. Pordata (2023, June 15). Índice de Envelhecimento e Outros Indicadores de Envelhecimento Segundo os Censos. Available online: https://www.pordata.pt/portugal/indice+de+envelhecimento+e+outros+indicadores+de+envelhecimento+segundo+os+censos-5250.

3. Eurostat (2023, June 15). Eurostat—A Look at the Lives of the Elderly in the EU Today. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/elderly/index.html.

4. NICE (2023, June 15). 2019 Surveillance of Falls in Older People: Assessing Risk and Prevention (NICE guideline CG161), Available online: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK551819/.

5. NICE (2023, June 15). Falls: Assessment and Prevention of Falls in Older People, Available online: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK258885/.

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