Investigation of Unsafe Acts Influence Law Based on System Dynamics Simulation: Thoughts on Behavior Mechanism and Safety Control

Abstract

In modern safety management, it is very important to study the influence of the whole safety system on unsafe acts in order to prevent accidents. However, theoretical research in this area is sparse. In order to obtain the influence law of various factors in the safety system on unsafe acts, this paper used system dynamics simulation to carry out theoretical research. First, based on a summary of the causes of the coal and gas outburst accidents, a dynamic simulation model for unsafe acts was established. Second, the system dynamics model is applied to investigate the influence of various safety system factors on unsafe acts. Third, the mechanism and the control measures of unsafe acts in the enterprise safety system are studied. This study’s main result and conclusions are as follows: (1) In the new coalmines, the influence of the safety culture, safety management system, and safety ability on the safety acts were similar. The order of influence on the safety acts in production coalmines is as follows: safety management system > safety ability > safety culture. The difference is most evident in months ten to eighteen. The higher the safety level and safety construction standard of the company, the greater the difference. (2) In the construction of the safety culture, the order of influence was as follows: safety measure elements > safety responsibility elements = safety discipline elements > safety concept elements. It shows the difference in influence from the 6th month and attains its maximum value from the 12th month to the 14th month. (3) In the construction of the safety management system, the degree of influence in new coalmines was as follows: safety policy > safety management organization structure > safety management procedures. Among them, especially in the first 18 months, the impact of the safety policy was most apparent. However, in the production mine, the degree of influence was as follows: safety management organization structure > safety management procedures > safety policy, but the difference is very small. (4) The degree of influence on the construct of safety ability was as follows: safety knowledge > safety psychology = safety habits > safety awareness, but the difference on the impact was small.