Retrospective Analyses of COVID-19 and Population Ageing Effects on Italian Mortality during the Pandemic

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 led to an extremely high number of deaths in Italy in 2020 with respect to previous years. Because the total number of deaths may depend on both the population structure and the mortality rate by age groups, a detailed overview of the Italian pandemic situation is here provided by following two main lines of inquiry: (i) checking for similarities and differences among mortality rates per age groups before and during the COVID-19 spread; (ii) analyzing the responsiveness of the Italian population structure to different mortality rates. Real-based evidence led us to conduct analyses for two groups associated with different population stages of life, referred to as younghood and adulthood periods. We focus on the Italian pandemic from February 2020 to March 2021. Our study helps to understand why elders dramatically impacted the total number of deaths. In addition, it reveals how badly the 2020 Italian population structure would have reacted to mortality rates already faced in the past. Finally, politicians, scientists, and journalists’ statements and other ways of communicating information about COVID-19 are questioned in the light of scientific data available at that time.