Variation in Global Policy Responses to COVID-19: A Bidirectional Analysis

Abstract

Against the unprecedented outbreaks of the COVID-19 variants, countries have introduced restrictive measures with discretion, ranging from lifting the closure thoroughly to implementing stringent policies, but all together guarding the global public health. Under the changing circumstances, we firstly apply the panel data vector autoregression (PVAR) model, using a sample of 176 countries/territories from 15 June 2021 to 15 April 2022, to estimate the potential associations among the policy responses, the progression of COVID-19 in deaths and vaccination, and medical resources possessed. Furthermore, we use the random effect method and the fixed effect speculation, to examine the determinants of policy variances across regions and over time. Our work has four main findings. Firstly, it showed the existence of a bidirectional relationship between the policy stringency and variables of interest including new daily deaths, the fully vaccinated percentage and health capacity. Secondly, conditional on the availability of vaccines, the sensitivity of policy responses to the death numbers tends to decline. Thirdly, the role of health capacity matters in coexisting with the virus mutation. Fourthly, regarding the variance in policy responses over time, the impact of new deaths tends to be seasonal. As to geographical differences in policy responses, we present the analysis for Asia, Europe, and Africa, and they show different levels of dependencies on the determinants. These findings suggest that bidirectional correlations exist in the complex context of wrestling with the COVID-19, as government interventions exert influence on the virus spread, the policy responses also progress alongside multiple factors evolving in the pandemic. This study will help policymakers, practitioners, and academia to formulate a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between policy responses and the contextualized implementation factors.