Dynamic Changes and Influencing Factors of Vegetation in the “Green Heart” Zone of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration during the Past 21 Years

Abstract

As a policy, protected green space in the rapidly developing the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration is of great practical significance to study the vegetation changes and influencing factors in the Green Heart area. In this paper, data processing, grading and area statistics were carried out for the maximum value of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) from 2000 to 2020. Combined with Theil–Sen median trend analysis and Mann–Kendall, the change trend of long-time series NDVI was studied, and investigation of NDVI influencing factors, processes and mechanisms using geographical detectors. The results showed that: (1) The spatial distribution characteristics of NDVI in the study area were high in the middle and inlaid transition between adjacent grades. Except for the low grades, the distribution of NDVI in other grades was relatively scattered, and the overall trend of NDVI change was rising. (2) Population density was the main factor affecting NDVI changes, with an explanatory power of up to 40%, followed by elevation, precipitation and minimum temperature. (3) The influence of influencing factors on the change of NDVI was not the result of independent action of a single factor, but the result of the interaction between human factors and natural factors, and the factor combinations with greater interaction had significant differences in the spatial distribution of NDVI.