Air Pollution and Migration Decision of Migrants in Low-Carbon Society

Abstract

The influence of environmental quality on the quality of urban life and on migration decisions is an important research issue in urban economics and environmental economics. Using the 2012–2014 China Labor Dynamics Survey data (CLDS), this paper uses a conditional logit model (CLM) and Instrumental Variable (IV) estimation to examine the impact of air pollution on the migrant migration decision. We find that air pollution significantly negatively impacts the migration decisions of migrants. Specifically, if the PM2.5 level of a city increases by 10 μg/m3, the probability of migrants flowing into the city will be significantly reduced by 21.2%. It shows that migrants choose to flow into cities with better spatial quality to reduce the risk of exposure to air pollution. After controlling for the characteristics of the outflow and the reasons for the flow, the impact of air pollution on migrants’ migration decisions remains robust. Heterogeneity analysis shows that middle-aged, male, married, and highly educated migrants are more sensitive to air pollution. This paper enriches the research on air pollution and labor mobility at the micro level and provides empirical evidence for policymaking related to environmental governance and labor mobility in a low-carbon society.