Dramatic Reductions in Cigarette Smoking Prevalence among High School Youth from 1991 to 2022 Unlikely to Have Been Undermined by E-Cigarettes

Abstract

There is concern that youth e-cigarette use could lead youth to initiate cigarette smoking. This study identifies epochs of cigarette smoking among U.S. high school students in three commonly utilized national school-based surveys over three decades without a priori assumptions. We examined trends in ever and current cigarette smoking among high school youth from 1991 to 2022 in three datasets: Monitoring the Future (MTF), the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (NYRBS) and the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) via Joinpoint regression. High stable rates of ever smoking were noted from 1991 to 1999 (NYRBS and MTF) and then significantly declined from 1999 to 2013; declines accelerated through to 2022. In the NYTS, ever cigarette smoking significantly declined from 1999 to 2018 and then declines accelerated to 2022. Current cigarette smoking reached its peak in 1997, and then significantly declined from 1997 to 2013 in the NYRBS and MTF and similarly in the NYTS from 1999 to 2018. Declines in current smoking then accelerated in all surveys through to 2022. These findings suggest dramatic successes in reducing youth smoking since the late 1990s, with more rapid declines in prevalence in the past decade.