Prediction of Pavement Maintenance Performance Using an Expert System

Abstract

The pavement experiences deterioration due to traffic and environment, i.e., unsatisfactory riding quality and structural inadequacy, over time. Thus, predicting pavement performance over time is one of the key elements of any pavement maintenance management system (PMMS). It can be used as an efficient tool to program/schedule the maintenance applications and expenditures, and thus the necessary funds can be allocated. Using a combination of independent variables for any selected pavement section can generate section-wise condition assessment and prediction models. Moreover, these models can be used to select the most cost-effective maintenance alternative to be applied to that pavement section. The present study developed an expert system based on pavement performance models which combines the available maintenance data with the knowledge acquired from the experts of the General Administration of Operation and Maintenance in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Eight regression models were first developed for four maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) strategies, i.e., no maintenance, routine maintenance, overlay, and reconstruction for low and high traffic. Then, a practical expert system was developed to aid pavement maintenance engineers in finding the most effective and efficient M&R strategies and suitable time for the application. The regression models revealed that the effect of routine maintenance and reconstruction is greater in low traffic than in high traffic, while the effect of overlay is greater in high traffic than in low traffic. Based on this initial system, another improved one can be developed using the machine learning technique.