CME Forecasting System: Event Selection Algorithm, Dimming Data Application Limitations, and Analysis of the Results for Events of the Solar Cycle 24

Abstract

The modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arrival to Earth was carried out using a one-dimensional drag-based model (DBM) over the period from 2010 to 2018. The CME propagation model includes a simulation of the interaction of the CME with background solar wind via the quasi-stationary solar wind (QSW) model. An analysis of the results of forecasting CME speed and time of arrival to Earth was performed. Input data were obtained from the CACTus database. To ensure real-time operation, a new algorithm was established to select events that can reach Earth more likely. Coronal dimming data were used to obtain coordinates of the CME source location. Forecasting results have been compared with interplanetary CME (ICME) catalogs. The system has predicted 189 of 280 events (68%), with a tolerance of 48 h for the period of maximum solar activity (from 2010 to 2015). The average absolute error of predicted CME arrival speed is about 90 km/s. Our system has predicted 80% of ICMEs associated with extreme geomagnetic storms (Dstmin ≤ −100 nT) within a tolerance of 24 h.